As far back as we can remember, there has always been attempts to better gauge a player's impact on the game. From the traditional plus/minus statistic to the modern revolution in shot metrics like Corsi and Fenwick, there has been a continuous search to place a player's contributions into a single measure for comparison.
"The Hohl Picture" (THP), created by statistician Garret Hohl, takes this process one step further with combining a player's impact on many of the on-ice results and team events into one easy to understand measure: the expected outcome in goals for-versus-against relative to ice-time with the player on the ice.
This measure takes the end-results produced from the accumulation of a player's decision making and action taking. This allows you to view a player's impact within the context of expected future outscoring, and therefore winning. The knowledge allows you to evaluate players in the context of their productivity in both direct and indirect contributions to the game.
"Analytics is the process of analyzing data to make more informed, and potentially better decisions."
THP is a measure estimating a player's overall output: the results that occur when a player is on the ice, and the extent we expect them to outscore the opposition over the long run if their performance were to continue. Hockey is a game of outscoring and the ultimate objective is to score more goals than your opponent. This separates THP from our team level data which looks into the inputs to a player's results: the how's and why's.
Sometimes statisticians will keep their work in black boxes, hiding what goes into their statistical model. We keep most of the information open and display how the player is performing in many of the models inputs, helping you understand where it is a player performs well or struggles.
THP looks at all shots (goals, saves, misses, and blocks) but also includes hits, penalties, and face-offs. This information is shown in a differential, with positive events versus negative events, relative to 60 minutes of the player's ice time.
GD/60 = Goal Differential per 60 minutes, SvD/60 = Save Differential per 60 minutes, MD/60 = Miss Shot Differential per 60 minutes, BD/60 = Block Shot Differential per 60 minutes, iH/60 = Inverse Hit Differential per 60 minutes, PenD/60 = Penalty Differential per 60 minutes, FOD/60 = Face-Off Differential per 60 minutes, THP = The Hohl Picture.
Our reports include all the components, which from this information you can draw out a player's goal differential and Corsi in addition to their THP.
The THP model is specifically designed to optimize the information drawn given clients needs and the data available at multiple levels. The data is simple to track for all levels, from Junior to the NHL, and takes into account the relationship these events have to how team's with performance at that specific sample size. In other words, THP is a metric customized and adapted to our clients needs.
"Zone exits, puck battles, grit, and effort can tell you why a player is effective. Statistics like goals, assists, plus/minus, Corsi, and THP measure how effective."
Both outputs and inputs have their role in statistical evaluations. While inputs like a player's performance in passing, breakouts, and turnovers (like with our team level analysis) can tell you their strengths, weaknesses and why they garner the results they do, the player's impact on the on-ice results describe how effective the player is when all the inputs combine into one package.